Friday, December 03, 2004


My very first entry

There is a familiar concept in statistics called "reversion to the mean". In simple terms, the idea is that things tend to even out. This concept helps to explain the 'Sports Illustrated Curse', which tends to strike athletes who have the fortune (or perhaps I should say misfortune) to appear on SI's cover. It also helps to explain why movie sequels are rarely as good as the original. In the former case, athletes featured on the cover of SI are often at the peak of their careers, so there's only one way their performance can go: down. In the latter case, only the better (or at least the more profitable) movies tend to be followed by sequels. Hence, there is a good chance that the sequel will not be as good as the original. Reversion to the mean, folks. How is this relevant to this blog? Well, I started this blog after 3 exceptionally good years investing the stock market. Presumably, if I had lost all my money (like some) I wouldn't be writing this now. So how will my investing future fare? Will I also revert to the mean? Stick around, and let's find out together.

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