Wednesday, January 10, 2007


BELM for a trade

Up 0.3 percent today. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I will try to do more short-term trading this year, which I hope will boost my portfolio's returns. With that in mind, I picked up 2000 shares of BELM. BELM has just broken out from a 30 percent orthogonal fibonacci channel, the stochastics look great, and the stock chart is showing the famous "dog with long tail holding a cup of coffee" pattern, which I know all you technical traders love to see. Oh yeah, (not that it's important) the company guided up revenue estimates yesterday and who knows, maybe that will also help.

Is this trade based on technicals or fundamentals? I thought that you were opposed to technical analysis...?
The post is based on humor, served with sarcasm and a touch of irony (would be my guess)
Hi Stockcoach,
I have been reading your blog for some time now and I must say you have done a great investing job. One trading blogger made the comment that you make in one day what takes him a week. And he is a good trader! My question concerns your take on technical traders who actually do well in the markets? I am thinking of people like William O'Neil over at Investors Business Daily who advocates trading patterns like cup and handles or things like symmetrical triangles? Or John Ehler of MESA software fame whose technical software (using signal processing algorithms) is world renowned. What about the statistical analysis of trading patterns done in the books by Thomas Bulkowski which shows many patterns of significance? In the blogosphere Trader X posts at least one sucessful trade everyday using Fibbonaci retracements. Even, unbelievably, financial astrologer Arch Crawford has been publishing a highly regarded newsletter for years. (I read about him in Hulbert's Financial Digest.) Yet I do draw the line in the sand before some technical systems. A few years back a book was published predicting a coming economic crash based on Elliott Wave analysis. So far these predictions have been a spectacular failure. The bottom line is that some traders do very well using patterns that you disparage and I am just wondering how you account for that. Dumb luck? As for myself I use a little from column A and a little column B and do fairly well. Thanks for your blog and your thoughts.

Sincerely, Antonio
Thanks for the comment Antonio. I'll address the questions that you raised in a future post on the blog.
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